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| Acting President of Nigeria, Prof. Yemi Osibanjo |
The window for Yemi Osinbajo, Nigeria's stand-in
president, to launch bold economic reforms and wrestle the ill-disciplined
naira currency into shape is fast closing.
President
Muhammadu Buhari signaled over the past weekend that he is ready to return from
receiving medical treatment in London as soon as his doctors allowed it.
That would could paid to investor hopes for
economic changes to qualify Nigeria for a World Bank loan to drag it out of
recession. It will also leave the plethora of naira exchange rates standing,
albeit perhaps closer to each other.
Buhari has kept a grip on power despite his medical
leave, and the more business-friendly Osinbajo has been reluctant to challenge
him.
This has gone as far as him flying to London to get
permission for personnel changes.
"We don't expect any deviation from the
current economic policy stance should President Buhari return," said Cobus
de Hart, senior economist at South Africa's NKC African Economics.
"One could hope that the return of the
president goes hand in hand with an acceleration of reform implementation, but
we doubt this will be the case."
Osinbajo, who has been running Nigeria since Buhari
went to Britain on May 7 and also ran it between January and March, has made
some changes.
He has managed to calm tensions in the Niger Delta
oil hub and pushed small steps such as a forex trade window to narrow the gap
between the official and parallel naira exchange rates.
But a unifying of all the exchange rates -- there
are at least six, including the black market -- remains far away. It would
amount to a devaluation, which Buhari has opposed.
More than three months after leaving Nigeria, it
remains unclear when Buhari will return, despite his remarks about his desire
to resume work. They were merely the latest in a number of presidency
announcements.
But even from far-away London Buhari and his aides
have restrained Osinbajo.
"He (Osinbajo) is so scared to offend
President Buhari to the extent that he takes no major action without consent
from him through phone," said a presidency official, asking not to be
named.
Osinbajo and his aides often hold meetings which
has enlivened a presidential villa criticized for inertia -- but he still seeks
approval from Buhari or his chief of staff.
He flew to London for a few hours last month to get
Buhari's approval to appoint two ministers who had been already cleared by
parliament, the official said.
During the meeting, Buhari even asked Osinbajo to
give the ministers no portfolio as he wanted to assign them himself after his
return, he said.
Moreover, when Osinbajo tried appointed a new board
for an anti-corruption commission he had to withdraw his candidates because
Buhari's aides did not like two names, the official said.
Among the few projects Osinbajo got underway are
the legalizing of illicit refineries in the restive Niger Delta oil hub, often
the only work for youth who tend to join otherwise militants.
Osinbajo also ordered an overhaul of dilapidated
facilities at Lagos airport, the main entry gate into Nigeria, as part of a plan
to ease doing business.
The new FX trade window has prompted some foreign
investors to return, pushing Nigerian stocks to a nearly three-year-high in
August.
But its inconclusive nature still holds back
investors, London-based Capital Economics said.
"There is a possibility that Buhari returns,
sees things improving and thinks there is no need to change anything. Further
reforms are desperately needed to achieve meaningful growth," said John
Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics.
Buhari, a former military ruler from the north,
made Osinbajo acting president when he first went to Britain to avoid a vacuum
as occurred in 2010 when then-President Umaru Yar'Adua spent three months in a
Saudi hospital while his aides shrouded his illness in secrecy.
His deputy Goodluck Jonathan only took over in a
constitutional crisis after Yar'Adua died.
Osinbajo has gone out of his way to show his
loyalty -- as a Christian lawyer from southern commercial capital Lagos he is walking
a tightrope to avoid policies that may annoy Buhari and his inner circle, who
are mainly Muslim northerners.
"The chief of staff and his team are working
alongside Osinbajo on the understanding that (he) will not run in 2019," a
government adviser said. Osinbajo has never said he wants to run.
"The election cycle is the last two years of
an administration. As we enter the election the issue of mutual trust becomes
crucial because nobody wants to be ambushed," said the adviser, who did
not want to be named.
Traditionally in Nigeria, the leadership rotates
between north and south to ensure a balance in a country evenly split between
Muslims and Christians.
Jonathan, a Christian from the south, upset many
northerners by refusing to give way. Northerners also felt there should have
been another northern term after Yar'Adua's death. Hundreds were killed in
riots after Jonathan's election in 2011.
News
Source: - Reuters | August 15, 2017.
Photo Source: - Simon Ateba News Africa | June 25, 2017.
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